Category Archives: Preparing for the worst

Geek Stuff, General, Liberating Thoughts, Politics, Preparing for the worst

Double Checking AI

Why can’t we run an AI check on AI output, asking it to evaluate the output for bias? It can review the output for racial, sexual, gender, socioeconomic, political, and any other number of potential biases, then put out a summary chart so you have overview of the inherent bias in the report.

You should be able to submit any article or post you are reading for this treatment.

Interesting, Word Press has added an AI Assistant to preview what you are about to publish. This is what it provided for this article.

The idea of using AI to evaluate the output for bias is intriguing. It could be helpful to:

1. Conduct thorough research on existing AI models for bias evaluation.

2. Collaborate with AI experts to develop a system that can detect and summarize potential biases.

3. Test the system extensively by submitting various articles and posts for evaluation.

4. Consider integrating the AI Assistant into the publishing process to provide users with a comprehensive overview.

5. Ensure transparency by clearly communicating the limitations and scope of bias evaluation to users.

The addition of an AI Assistant to preview content in WordPress is indeed an interesting development.

Preparing for the worst

Where to go?

An interesting call with family today. My brothers and sisters are scattered around the country, from Alaska to North Carolina (and Colorado, New Mexico, Maryland, California,and, maybe, Delaware). We are all getting to the age of “Where is the best place to retire?”

Several factors are to be considered, least of which is Politics. (We are, primarily, a blue family. I suppose we have some purple leaning folks as well.) General Weather is a prime consideration, along with potential future climate change directions.

I brought up the WATER problem here along the Front Range of Colorado. This is a significant issue in the Mountain West and the Southwest in general. West of the Mississippi it is a major consideration except for the Pacific Northwest Coastal areas.

Colorado Springs has greatly ameliorated its water issues by diverting water from the Colorado River to the Arkansas River and drawing upon that water to feed Colorado Springs via the Southern Water Delivery System. It helps to have senior water rights to a river on the other side of the continental divide.

The West is basically an arid land. Amongst the seven western states along the Colorado River drainage region: California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming, Colorado gets the bulk (51.75%) of the half to the water designated to the northern states (7.5 Million acre-feet), in the 1922 Water Accord.

Unfortunately, evidently the 1910’s-1920’s were a very wet period in the Southwest and the values of allocated water resources may be based on excessive water availability for that decade.

Poor Mexico was supposed to receive at least 10% of the Colorado River flow and was lucky to receive anything . A 2013 Treaty says that Mexico should receive at least 10% of the water from the Colorado River (1.5 M Acre-feet). The Colorado River tributary in Mexico has dried up.

I HAVE DIGRESSED. The original topic of discussion was where to consider moving to in the next few years to enjoy retirement. Several of my sisters are looking to the Carolinas. Moderate weather most of the year , subject to hurricanes, may be getting hotter, even in the highlands. Biggest Problem, part of the Confederacy. Might be fine for white folks, not so sure about Americans.

I am happy in Colorado, though I note that when I moved here in the ’90’s we did not even think about getting a house with air-conditioning. We bought our latest house, about 6 miles east of our original house, and wouldn’t consider it without air-conditioning. (I note the 6 miles east because our old house was on the fault line of the front range and we are now well away from the mountains?) With the new water project, I think Colorado Springs is set for a reliable source of water for the next 50 years.

The rest of the Mountain West viability is really subject to water availability. I have driven up and down the Front Range and aside from Denver, Santa Fe, Colorado Spring and Albuquerque, there isn’t a lot of there, there. I suspect due to water issues more than anything else.

The Great Plains have weather extreme issues. They might be pleasant six months out of the year, but the other six are unbearable.

The New England states might be bearable once climate change becomes more established, but, right now, the extremes are extreme.

Alaska won’t be viable year-round for another 50 years or so. I have family living around Homer, and they really want to get out of Alaska in the winter.

The Eastern parts of Washington, Oregon, and California are part of the Mountain West. The Coastal parts of those States are most viable, at least north of Pebble Beach. They seem to have the temperate climates, water, and overall amenable living conditions. The only problem is whether you can afford to move there.

Some of my siblings are considering setting up family enclaves outside of the US. Costa Rica, Ireland, or, somewhere warm have been suggested. I don’t know. There are possibilities. Where is the best place to be in 20 years?

General, Preparing for the worst

Checking Facts

There are a number of fact-checking organizations out there, confirming or dismissing statements made on the internets. I think it would behoove the social media companies that provide the platforms to use these fact checking organizations to append a link when a social media item is noted in a fact check.

As an example, if a tweet is noted in a fact check, then Twitter should include a link to the fact-check with the tweet. If a tweet has been fact-checked, it probably has a long life.

Facebook may be more problematic, since a lot of Facebook posts may be corrupted through a daisy chain of shares and repostings, but Facebook has the computer power to tie the posts back to a common fact-checked source. ‘Shopped photos are one area Facebook could definitely be good at.

Other social media services will have their own fact-checking issues. I think faked pictures are probably the greatest threat, since they can jump across language barriers.

There is an International Network of Fact Checkers that has a code of principles for a fact-checking site to be accepted as a member. This might serve a a basis for finding checked fact and tying it to the social media item.

There are other fact-checking sites that that run the gamut of the political spectrum and truthfulness, and they have been identified by Media Bias/Fact Check.

Some sort of automated review of fact-checking sites for new social media postings would be most useful to help maintain the integrity of information in the shared mediaverse. The reviews need to be recurring as well, since the original post may not be fact-checked for some time after the posting.

And, of course, the satirical posts need to be readily highlighted. Especially a post taken from a satire site and reposted to a ‘legitimate’ site. The world has gotten so strange that it is hard to differentiate satire from reality, or malicious intent.

General, Preparing for the worst

A concern

Here is an article that lays out one of my main concerns of the past decade. Back when the markets tanked, the Fed began buying up those bad collateral debt obligations in stages and ended up with 4 TRILLION Dollars of bad junk on its books. As the article points out, other Central Banks were doing the same and globally they hold almost 15 TRILLION Dollars worth of bad debt.

This propped up the stock markets artificially for the big boom period that certainly helped me towards retirement, but what happens when that hyper pumping-up stops? We are probably about to find in the next year or two. I can only hope my portfolio (and my retirement) survives what is coming, because I have no idea how to protect it.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-its-time-to-hear-the-ugly-truth-2019-01-05

General, Politics, Preparing for the worst

information warfare

Jim Wright makes a lot of sense of a muddled field.

http://www.stonekettle.com/2016/12/blind-spot-part-ii.html

(I wonder how this will present itself when it is copied to the other platforms I share to?)

And here are some weapons for the war –

http://www.npr.org/2016/12/11/505154631/a-finders-guide-to-facts

Economics, Politics, Preparing for the worst

Trust

We have set up Trust Funds to help cover growth and costs. There is Social Security, Highway, Post Office, Military Retirement, etc. These funds collect money from use taxes and the like, with the expectation that it will be spent sometime in the future. It is setting aside money collected today to pay for a rainy day.

But Congress, in its infinite wisdom, has made the revenues collected and distributions part of the federal budget. So the money collected on the sunny days is counted as Federal Income and the money spent on rainy days  is subject to political debates, every time.  The Highway Trust Fund is a good example. We have gasoline taxes that go into the fund and should go to pay for highway repairs ten or twenty years down the road. If the Fund is On Budget, then some or all the monies go into the General Fund controlled by Congress and when it comes time to actually repair the bridges and roads Congress won’t provide the funds because it is not politically expedient to spend the money and increase the deficit.

Take the trust funds off-budget and the money in-out flows don’t count towards the federal budget. If the Fund actually needs an infusion of cash, then  Congress can debate if it is deserved instead of debating whether to payout monies that should already be in the fund or not.

Infrastructure support. If we build infrastructure we need to expect and plan to maintain that infrastructure for the ongoing future. Highways, airports, pensions, these are all part of the infrastructure we need to maintain the society we are building.  If we don’t want the building to collapse, with us in it, we need to keep it repaired and growing. Congress is not doing that.

Even cities and states should be setting up trust funds to maintain the public infrastructure of roads, sewers, water mains and public buildings. These shouldn’t be subject to debate every time a bridge collapses or water treatment plant fails.

Saving for a rainy day is an axiom that is based on common sense. It isn’t always easy to see a large nest egg being built up and not used when you have so many ‘better’ things to spend it on, but it needs to be done.

Take the Trust Funds off budget.

 

 

Economics, Politics, Preparing for the worst

Uncertainty

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regulatory uncertainty: A phony explanation for our jobs problem | Economic Policy Institute.

There is some talk about the uncertainty of government regulation slowing down or stopping ‘business’ from investing their several Trillions of  dollars in the growth of the American economy.

So instead of uncertainty, why doesn’t business assume the worst. The government will establish regulations that will prevent American Citizens from being:

  • Poisoned
  • Killed
  • Defrauded
  • Threatened
  • Mistreated
  • Terrorized
  • Disadvantaged

And that will put the public good over the corporate good.

Assume the worst and everything doesn’t come true is gravy for your bottom line.

 

Economics, Politics, Preparing for the worst

A discussion

I saw an interesting interview with Senator Rand Paul by Jon Stewart last night, three parts. They were actually exchanging coherent ideas.

You don’t have the right to pollute your neighbor’s air, and the air is much cleaner than it was 30 years ago. (Only some of it is the Clean Air Act?) Things are a balancing act.

There is a difference between stupidity and over-regulation.  Government has a role in regulation. Congress has a role in stupidity.

Corporations aren’t going to keep themselves clean; we the people need to have some oversight. That’s what Congress is for.

Do we work to monitor the stupidity in regulation or do we get rid of regulation altogether?

Rather than taking a sledgehammer to the government, let’s debate the extent that regulations should have. Let Congress do its job and rein in the Faceless Bureaucrats as needed. But it seems that congress doesn’t want to get involved with the details and they pass laws with vague wording that requires substantial interpretation. And if the interpretation is not politically correct, the politician has a fall back position.

I  thought Paul’s example of Hazmat teams needed to clean up milk spills was a bit of hyperbole, especially since he tied it to Oil Spill clean up. Did a civil servant really tie the animal fat oil in milk to petroleum? Or is someone out there making fun of the faceless bureaucracy? Or is our milk supply really hazardous?  (Where are those milk inspectors when you need them?)

Politics, Preparing for the worst

Open Letter to my nieces and nephews

Eat the Future – NYTimes.com.

Please pay attention to what Congress is doing. Because most of what they are going to do is going to be bad for you.  And the main reason for that is that you don’t speak out loudly enough for Congress to care. Don’t let the baby-boomers (that’s us) continue to suck out the good stuff of America. We will leave you the dried-out husk.

You have got to make Congress aware that you want a coherent policy that addresses the concerns 50 years down the road as well as the short-term issues. These guys are as bad or worse than a corporate board of directors. Short-term profits are paramount.  If it doesn’t get them re-elected next time around it isn’t a concern. You have to make it a concern. You have got to use your voice now; reaffirm the basic principles of our country:

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

otherwise you, my Posterity, will be in Tahrir Square demanding Justice, Tranquility and the Blessings of Liberty, but that will be after I am gone.

You get to decide if you will live in the Blade Runner world, or the world of Brazil. You have to speak up early, often, and never stop, or you will get the dregs we leave you.

On a more positive note, we may be out of Afghanistan by then.