Yes, we don’t get hurricanes, just High Wind Advisories. This one only has gusts up to 80 MPH. It’s one way to keep the yard cleared. This morning the tumbleweed I saw wasn’t tumbling; it was screaming like a bat out hell, straight across the fields.

Nothing to do for this except don’t go out in it or be prepared to be sand-blasted. This is probably why 75% of all windshields in Colorado are replaced every two years. Hard to drive into the sun with a sand-blasted windshield. The other 25% is for the rocks kicked up after snow-melt.

This is a weather adivisory. I emboldened the parts of interest to me.

National Weather Service Zone – COZ084

PUBNPWPUB
WWUS75 KPUB 031548
NPWPUB

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
848 AM MST THU NOV 3 2005

DAMAGING WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.A STRONG JET STREAM MOVING OVER THE REGION IS CAUSING STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

COZ072>075-078>088-040000-
/O.NEW.KPUB.HW.W.0002.051103T1548Z-051104T0000Z/
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
INCLUDING…LA VETA PASS…PONCHA PASS…BLANCA PEAK…CUCHARA…
STONEWALL…WESTON…SPANISH PEAKS…SILVER CLIFF…WESTCLIFFE…
RYE…GREENHORN MTN…WOODLAND PARK…PIKES PEAK…CANON CITY…
PENROSE…BLACK FOREST…AIR FORCE ACADEMY…COLORADO SPRINGS…
PUEBLO…WALSENBURG…TRINIDAD
848 AM MST THU NOV 3 2005

HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION…

STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TELLER COUNTY AND FAR WEST EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 25.

FOR AREAS FROM PUEBLO COUNTY SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER…

STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WET MOUNTAINS…AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS OF
20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WIND PRONE AREAS…ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 25 FROM COLORADO
CITY TO TRINIDAD WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

HIGH WIND CAN CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND CAN DAMAGE OR DESTROY
MOBILE HOMES. LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS CAN BECOME FLYING MISSILES…
WHICH CAN BE DANGEROUS OR LIFE THREATENING TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND VEHICLES PULLING TRAILERS CAN BE
FLIPPED. BLOWING DUST CAN QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
NEAR OPEN AND PLOWED LAND…WHICH CAN CAUSE VEHICLES TO SLOW DOWN
AND CAUSE CHAIN-REACTION ACCIDENTS. BLOWING DUST OR SAND CAN ALSO
BE A HEALTH HAZARD FOR THOSE WITH RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS. STAY
INDOORS IF THERE IS BLOWING DUST OR SAND IN YOUR AREA. SECURE
LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS. CONSIDER NOT TRAVELING ON ROADS WITH
CROSSWINDS.

Lunar colonists decide to declare their independence from Earth and start flinging rocks, with a magnetic rail gun, at Cheyenne Mountain (need to knock out Space Command).

Hopefully we will have a day warning, since I think I would want to evacuate a few hundred miles in case the boy genius on the moon who is programmming the rail gun misses a decimal point.

So, it is into the truck with the animals and supplies and off on the road.

This one might not be a problem for a few years…

What if some terrorists decide that Colorado Springs is a target and they set off a dirty bomb or other WMD? After all, we do have Cheyenne Mountain, Pikes Peak, The Air Force Academy, and other symbolic places. But, they don’t often appear in movies.

Then, I could imagine a lot of panic, mass evacuations, traffic jams, people scrambling to get as far away from the Springs as possible. We have a limited number of roads leaving this area. Not sure that I would worry about leaving right away unless the winds weren’t favorable. Then it becomes the snowstorm scenario of being trapped in the house for a week, probably without power or communications.

I did just remember that we have 50 gallons of water in the water heater to use, if needed.

Unless there is a complete breakdown across the state and/or country, we should be able to manage a week or two before venturing out. By then, the traffic should be manageable.

We try to keep the truck topped off with its two tanks of diesel. I think we have about a 400 mile range, with the horse trailer, before we need to fill up again. I wonder if we should plan to tow one of the cars behind the trailer. Nah. That may be excessive.

If we need to evacuate right away, I expect we would head north, towards Denver. My preference would be to head in to the mountains, since I figure that anything drifting in the wind would not be going uphill.

Rather than Denver, I will head up Mt Herman Road and make for Woodland Park. The Rampart Range Rd shouldn’t be too congested since it is a rutted dirt track. The truck can make it, but the horses might not. (Providing it isn’t winter.)

Winter adds a bit of complexity to the problem.

I think for an evacuation scenario, I need to acquire some land somewhere that we can retreat to. A mountain lot would be good, but inaccessible in the winter. A place out east, on the plains, may be more useful, year-round.

Load up the truck with food and water for people, dogs and horses, load up the camping supplies, and take off.

I wonder if I should keep a stash of 50 or so cartons of cigarettes on hand for trading supplies.

It’s Mad Max time…

A winter storm rolls in and dumps 5 feet of snow over the region. The Result: we aren’t going anywhere.

The worst case scenario is that we are unable to leave the valley for a week, the power lines go down, and power crews can’t get to the break(s) to repair them. We are without power for a week.

Power is a critical part of our survival. We are on well for starters, so without power we have no water. We installed a propane heating system several years ago, replacing a set of electric baseboard heaters, but the furnace needs electricity to run the blower motor and to spark the ignition. So, no central heating. The one spot of hope is that the range top is also propane-powered and can be lit without electricity. So heat and hot food is available in a portion of the house.

As the rest of the house freezes, water pipes become at risk, so even when power returns, we may have burst pipes to contend with. It will be necessary to go into the crawl space and empty the pipes as best as possible. I don’t know that we have drain valves on those pipes.

We can stay in the house most of the time, keeping the heat in the house and conserving our energy as best we can.

And without power we will lose access to the internet.

If the power lines are down, the telephone line is probably also down. Our cell phones will have limited power and the cell towers will probably be out, as well. We could use the cars to charge the cell phones if needed. Car radios or battery radios will be useful to find out what is happening elsewhere, but we shouldn’t expect to be able to communicate with the rest of the world.

How dangerous is it to use propane cookers in a sealed house? Need to check it out. I expect that we can put the patio grill in the mudroom/garage and keep those fumes out of the main house. I wonder what the range top will do?

The propane tank is usually filled when it is half empty, so I expect to have at least a week’s worth of propane in the tank, and without the central heating and water tank going the propane should last longer.

I see that there are vent-free propane heaters available. I think one of those in the back part of the house would help keep it warm, and ameliorate the burst pipe scenario.

One option I have considered is getting a propane generator and getting it hooked into the house wiring so I can keep power in the house even if the grid goes down. And I think I would upgrade the propane tank from 500 gallons to 1500 gallons.

This approach would restore central heating and water, end worries about burst pipes and give us a nice comfy nest. Whether communications are restored depends on the rest of the world.

So, is the likelihood of being knocked off the grid for any length of time worth the headaches of installing a home generator? I assume that these things need regular maintenance and need to be actually used every once in while. I can’t even keep my house stained every other year (important for UV protection of the wood siding) and here I am thinking about maintaining machinery?

A quick google indicates that a generator will run up to $3000. I need to calculate how much power I will actually need to back-up. Refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, dryers, etc don’t have a high priority for me. Then there will be some work to get it wired into my home power system, with a cut out switch to the generator when needed. And the new propane tank will need to be located much further from the house and I will need to get the piping run out to the new tank site. Overall, I think it could run up to $4000, plus annual maintenance. Is it worth it?

I should note that an underlying assumption to the stranded for a week scenrio is that we have over a week’s worth of dry and canned food to live on. The five gallons of water in the mud room will come in handy, too.

There’s fire and ice, to start with:

Wildfire destroys house and belongings. Almost happened a few years ago, The Hayman fire got within 10 miles of our house, with nothing between the house and the fire but tinder. Fortunately, the winds shifted and the fire stopped its advance. Our planning for that was to be on a cruise ship in the Caribbean listening to CNN newscasts about a fire in the Denver suburbs. Not the most effective plan, but we didn’t worry about it since Denver is 70 miles away.

Our house sits on a non-treed patch of ground. The nearest real trees are hundreds of yards away. We have a lot of shrub oak in the horse fields but not anywhere close to the house. And the horses do their best to keep the grass non-existent in their fields. Our biggest concern would have to be the grass right around the house. We don’t keep it cut because it isn’t very thick. (We have no real topsoil.) It is deep, though. I don’t know if it would sustain enough fire to warm up our oil-soaked wood siding to the burning point, but, Elaine did cut the grass back this year. It will probably need cutting in another three years.

But, if embers did fly and our house were to burn; we would gather our precious papers, put the horses and animals in the trailer and take off down the road, ready to rebuild once the fire passed.

Most wildfires will give you some warning that they are coming. You can prepare and collect the essentials.

I did think about setting up sprinklers on the roof and wetting things down, but we are on well water and probably don’t have enough water pressure to make a difference. After 10-20 minutes the pressure would come down to a dribble. Better to fill up what tubs and vats we can and get out of the valley.

I did create a “go-bag” that carries a few items that would be nice to have and that might not get collected in an escape. Mine is not an urban bag. Then there is the sillier ‘go bag’. I know Making Light brings up the preparedness issue pretty regularly. My problem is to remember to replenish the perishables in the bag.

I also have a 5-gallon cooler of water sitting in the garage. I need to replenish that as well. If we need to evacuate from our home, I expect it will be by car (or truck with horse trailer attached). So we can carry some heavier items, like water.

My biggest concern about fire is getting cut off from the utility grid. Even if my house survives, the telephone and electric poles may not and we could be without power for a while. More on that in another post. And the Ice.

What is the worst that can happen, and how do you plan for it? Personally, I think having a fatal accident and not dying is about the worst that can happen. Because, if you don’t die, you probably won’t want to be living. The Band Played Waltzing Matilda reminds me of that thought. I do have the Living Will testament to avoid heroic resuscitation procedures.

But for property, and the aftermath of a natural disaster such as Katrina, how do you plan for the worst? And Rita showed that all your planning may not be worth a hill of beans if several million others are caught in the same boat.

I have created a new category to collect some thoughts on the subject.