Health-Care Costs Expected to Soar Over Next Decade

This article discusses some of the pending healthcare cost rises. From an est. $1.9 Trillion in 2005 to $3.6 Trillion in 2014.

I want to look at the per person costs for healthcare. For 2005, I will figure on a Population of 290 Million. For 2014, I will use 310 Million.

Using the numbers above, our health care costs average $6,552 per person in 2005, rising to $11,613 in 2014.

If we consider insurance as a shared risk pool, it would seem to me that for a $6552 a year everyone should should get into a health insurance plan. I will even give up $552 a year for as a deductible and say $6000 a year. For Elaine and myself, a mere $12,000 a year will cover us for healthcare; rising to $22000 a year in 2014. (I am going to a $613 deductible in 2014) .

Of course, this insurance pool needs to include EVERYONE, from newborn babe to deathbed pensioner. If we allow opt-in/opt-out options, then many sub-30 people will opt-out because “We are in the Pink of Health!” And a family with 8 kids and 2 parents will face an annual insurance bill of $60,000 with a $5520 deductible. Somehow, I don’t think that will be economically viable from the family’s point of view.

My numbers are a bit higher than the article’s. I think I am assuming a lower population number, but our costs per person are close. The upshot would appear to be that while a wage-earning individual faces a reasonable average payment, the gross family payments account equal or exceed the poverty level for a family of 3, or greater. (The single Poverty rate is greater than the $6,552 for a single healthcare share. The family of 2 Poverty rate is just just less than the $13,104 healthcare rate for two.) Something seems askew when the poverty rate doesn’t include health insurance costs.

I see that there are a lot of comments going on about a National ID card. Evidently, some in the Congress are trying to mandate that state driver’s licenses should contain a common set of information, that that information will be shared across a common database system between all 50 states and that a driver needs to prove their citizenship to get a license.

I don’t have any problem with Congress mandating that state’s DLs have common information. It makes sense that IDs should include a name, picture and DOB. And I think that some states don’t include all that information on a DL.

What I strenuously object to is the idea of sharing information between states. I am a citizen/resident of Colorado. I don’t need for any Californian browsing through my record, whether with good intentions, no intentions or bad intentions. It is not anyone’s business, outside of Colorado, what my DL says.

As a secondary objection, the idea of mandating that states verify US citizenship before issuing a license is stupid. The Feds aren’t going to put any money into the time and effort to handle validation. What I would suggest is that the Feds define what constitutes proof of citizenship and then ask the state to note on the driver’s license that “Proof of US Citizenship Presented” or something like that if the citizen presents proof. If someone wants a license but doesn’t want to gather the necessary documents then the field can be left blank or filled in with “No Proof of Citizenship Presented”. If someone comes in for a license and presents proof of Japanese citizenship then that can be noted on the license. I don’t see any reason to stop someone from getting a Driver License just because they aren’t a citizen. As long as they are residing in the state, I think it would behoove us to know that they know the rules of the road.

One of the on-going problems with the whole Driver License National ID is that there are a number of people who don’t drive. I know of a few non-drivers. I expect in 20-30 years I will be a non-driver. Some states, maybe all, offer a non-driver license ID so non-drivers can have the checking cashing ID form so many stores require. This could be included with the ‘National ID’ card as well.

I know some tellers get freaked out when you show them your US Passport as an ID.

PS > No Social Security Number on your Driver License. < The odds of someone hacking the DL database and getting critical ID information are pretty high. They only need to do it once. And if the state Databases are networked, then everyone loses their Identity.

I heard the the House has passed a bill that will do away with the Estate Tax in 2010, so it doesn’t come back as currently allowed.

What I don’t understand is why the Republicans think that the estate tax is ‘unfair’. The person who earned the estate, built it up penny by penny, is dead. They don’t need it anymore. Once you leave the playing table, your chips revert to the bank.

All right, so they want to pass their ill-gotten gains onto others. How is this fair? One measure of success in our society is your net worth. So these inheritors are suddenly swimming in money without lifting a finger. How is that fair?

Not having an Estate Tax is inherently unfair. It promotes the growth of an aristocracy that claims great material wealth based on the activities of their ancestors. I think the British have already demonstrated the usefulness of these twits.

Another argument made about the Estae Tax is that it causes family businesses to break up because they have to sell the business assets to pay the tax.

My solution is simple. Property that is inherited is not taxed at the time of inheritence. It is only taxed when it is sold. If someone passes on the family farm, worth 10’s of millions of dollars, to three children, along with 10 million dollars, the Estate Tax would be figured on the dollars and not the farm (unless the children want to sell it). When one or all of the children decide to sell part or whole of the farm, then they pay the Estate Tax on it. The same can be done for paintings, artwork, jewelry, family heirlooms. No tax until they are sold. Stocks, bonds, money instruments, basically anything the SEC might oversee, are taxed when inherited, if the total value of the Estate at time of death exceeds some set value. (We don’t count property appreciation after death.)

What would be a good set value to start Estate Taxes? How about 10 times the anual salary of the President of the United States? or 5 times? That allows the value to change with the times and not squeeze everyone once inflation pushes the poverty level up to $1,000,000.