A winter storm rolls in and dumps 5 feet of snow over the region. The Result: we aren’t going anywhere.

The worst case scenario is that we are unable to leave the valley for a week, the power lines go down, and power crews can’t get to the break(s) to repair them. We are without power for a week.

Power is a critical part of our survival. We are on well for starters, so without power we have no water. We installed a propane heating system several years ago, replacing a set of electric baseboard heaters, but the furnace needs electricity to run the blower motor and to spark the ignition. So, no central heating. The one spot of hope is that the range top is also propane-powered and can be lit without electricity. So heat and hot food is available in a portion of the house.

As the rest of the house freezes, water pipes become at risk, so even when power returns, we may have burst pipes to contend with. It will be necessary to go into the crawl space and empty the pipes as best as possible. I don’t know that we have drain valves on those pipes.

We can stay in the house most of the time, keeping the heat in the house and conserving our energy as best we can.

And without power we will lose access to the internet.

If the power lines are down, the telephone line is probably also down. Our cell phones will have limited power and the cell towers will probably be out, as well. We could use the cars to charge the cell phones if needed. Car radios or battery radios will be useful to find out what is happening elsewhere, but we shouldn’t expect to be able to communicate with the rest of the world.

How dangerous is it to use propane cookers in a sealed house? Need to check it out. I expect that we can put the patio grill in the mudroom/garage and keep those fumes out of the main house. I wonder what the range top will do?

The propane tank is usually filled when it is half empty, so I expect to have at least a week’s worth of propane in the tank, and without the central heating and water tank going the propane should last longer.

I see that there are vent-free propane heaters available. I think one of those in the back part of the house would help keep it warm, and ameliorate the burst pipe scenario.

One option I have considered is getting a propane generator and getting it hooked into the house wiring so I can keep power in the house even if the grid goes down. And I think I would upgrade the propane tank from 500 gallons to 1500 gallons.

This approach would restore central heating and water, end worries about burst pipes and give us a nice comfy nest. Whether communications are restored depends on the rest of the world.

So, is the likelihood of being knocked off the grid for any length of time worth the headaches of installing a home generator? I assume that these things need regular maintenance and need to be actually used every once in while. I can’t even keep my house stained every other year (important for UV protection of the wood siding) and here I am thinking about maintaining machinery?

A quick google indicates that a generator will run up to $3000. I need to calculate how much power I will actually need to back-up. Refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, dryers, etc don’t have a high priority for me. Then there will be some work to get it wired into my home power system, with a cut out switch to the generator when needed. And the new propane tank will need to be located much further from the house and I will need to get the piping run out to the new tank site. Overall, I think it could run up to $4000, plus annual maintenance. Is it worth it?

I should note that an underlying assumption to the stranded for a week scenrio is that we have over a week’s worth of dry and canned food to live on. The five gallons of water in the mud room will come in handy, too.

There’s fire and ice, to start with:

Wildfire destroys house and belongings. Almost happened a few years ago, The Hayman fire got within 10 miles of our house, with nothing between the house and the fire but tinder. Fortunately, the winds shifted and the fire stopped its advance. Our planning for that was to be on a cruise ship in the Caribbean listening to CNN newscasts about a fire in the Denver suburbs. Not the most effective plan, but we didn’t worry about it since Denver is 70 miles away.

Our house sits on a non-treed patch of ground. The nearest real trees are hundreds of yards away. We have a lot of shrub oak in the horse fields but not anywhere close to the house. And the horses do their best to keep the grass non-existent in their fields. Our biggest concern would have to be the grass right around the house. We don’t keep it cut because it isn’t very thick. (We have no real topsoil.) It is deep, though. I don’t know if it would sustain enough fire to warm up our oil-soaked wood siding to the burning point, but, Elaine did cut the grass back this year. It will probably need cutting in another three years.

But, if embers did fly and our house were to burn; we would gather our precious papers, put the horses and animals in the trailer and take off down the road, ready to rebuild once the fire passed.

Most wildfires will give you some warning that they are coming. You can prepare and collect the essentials.

I did think about setting up sprinklers on the roof and wetting things down, but we are on well water and probably don’t have enough water pressure to make a difference. After 10-20 minutes the pressure would come down to a dribble. Better to fill up what tubs and vats we can and get out of the valley.

I did create a “go-bag” that carries a few items that would be nice to have and that might not get collected in an escape. Mine is not an urban bag. Then there is the sillier ‘go bag’. I know Making Light brings up the preparedness issue pretty regularly. My problem is to remember to replenish the perishables in the bag.

I also have a 5-gallon cooler of water sitting in the garage. I need to replenish that as well. If we need to evacuate from our home, I expect it will be by car (or truck with horse trailer attached). So we can carry some heavier items, like water.

My biggest concern about fire is getting cut off from the utility grid. Even if my house survives, the telephone and electric poles may not and we could be without power for a while. More on that in another post. And the Ice.

What is the worst that can happen, and how do you plan for it? Personally, I think having a fatal accident and not dying is about the worst that can happen. Because, if you don’t die, you probably won’t want to be living. The Band Played Waltzing Matilda reminds me of that thought. I do have the Living Will testament to avoid heroic resuscitation procedures.

But for property, and the aftermath of a natural disaster such as Katrina, how do you plan for the worst? And Rita showed that all your planning may not be worth a hill of beans if several million others are caught in the same boat.

I have created a new category to collect some thoughts on the subject.